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LinuxWorld Expo refutes the FUD
LinuxWorld.com 2/2/01
Joe Barr, LinuxWorld.com
If you've ever wondered how much truth there might be in Microsoft's FUD campaigns, like the one currently under way to convince us all that Linux is doomed, the answer is that there is always some truth in them. Ideally, from Microsoft's point of view, it will be the absolute minimum required to convince the unwary that they are speaking the whole truth. Because the rodents in Redmond can sound oh-so-sincere, it behooves us all to keep in mind that they are the same people who promised us that Windows 95 was an "all-new 32-bit operating system" that would run in 4 MB of memory. |
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Doug Miller, group product manager for competitive strategy of Windows .Net Server marketing, is a Microsoft rodent. A groundhog, to be specific. He recently stuck his head out of his hole and cast such a long shadow over Linux that we can be certain only that this FUD campaign will last a minimum of six more weeks. Just before the LinuxWorld Conference & Expo (LWCE) kicked off in New York last week, Miller was telling every news organization that would hear him out (specifically Wired and eWeek -- see Resources for links) that "Linux is doomed."
Adhering to the classic MS-FUD recipe, Miller started with a pinch of truth in saying that there will be failures and realignments within the Linux business community. Having established a hint of credibility with that gem of insight, he moved on to his larger message of Linux's inevitable demise. But there is another message conveyed by his statements: Microsoft is frightened. And LWCE showed that it has good reason to be. Microsoft knows that its days of empire and glory are at an end unless it can find some way to do to Linux what it did to OS/2. The problem is that Microsoft can't impose the Redmondian death penalty by yanking the license to preload Windows. Linux is immune.
Now before the "fifth columnists" active in the Linux press ambush this penguinista for abusing their friends at Microsoft, let me explain exactly what I mean. I'm not saying Microsoft is dead or even dying. I'm saying the sun has set on the Microsoft empire. As evidence consider that, in the old days, Microsoft could buy customers no matter the cost. Just ask Netscape. But recently, Microsoft's attempt to grab AOL turf by giving $400 rebates in exchange for MSN membership turned out to be "too expensive." The proof is in the pudding, and it was served hot and steaming at Jacob K. Javits Convention Center.
Expo to the contrary
Was the crowd different from those at previous LWCEs? Yes, for sure. Did the tone of the show reflect the downturn in the technology sector over the last year, and especially in the Linux space? Yes, absolutely. But was the crowd smaller? No. Less interested? No. Instead it was more focused on the real work at hand. The Linux revolution is past the hype stage, past the cries of surprise from the tres duh press. Linux is a better mousetrap and the world is realizing this. No amount of FUD from Microsoft is going to change that.
The Linux business landscape is no longer populated with every Tom, Dick, and entrepreneur in the world hoping to make a quick buck on the latest fad. It now consists of serious folk making sound business decisions. And when the downturn in the sector ends, the best of these, the survivors of the current slump, are going to reap the profits due them for their good judgment and perseverance.
How serious are the folk? Well, serious enough that Sun and IBM had been battling in the background since the last LWCE over which company would provide the opening keynoter for this one. IBM won the battle this time, and COO Sam Palmisano opened. I tried to learn whether or not Scott McNealy would have spoken for Sun but my source dried up. I expect this rivalry between industry behemoths to continue behind the scenes until the next LWCE, at least. Last time, Sun's blockbuster announcement was the GPL for StarOffice. Maybe next time it will be for Java.
I spent some time at the show with GreatBridge president Bob Gilbert and David Mele, vice president of marketing. I like their approach. They've gotten members of the core PostgreSQL development team onboard and they have a perfectly clear idea of what they have to offer. In a word, it's service.
GreatBridge is built around what is considered the best full-featured Relational Data Management System (RDMS) in the open source world: PostgreSQL. Its financing comes from one of the original angels who funded Red Hat Linux. As Bob Gilbert put it, "It is exceedingly patient money." The company's expertise comes from the real-world hacking experience on its staff, which includes people like Bruce Momjian, who maintains the "To Do" list for the PostgreSQL project and has written a book about the project, and Jan Wieck, a leading contributor to PostgreSQL. David Mele and others bring the know-how required to successfully manage service contracts and support customers in the enterprise. And last but not least, GreatBridge believes in the power and ultimate dominance of the "disruptive technology" represented by Linux and open source.
GreatBridge is perhaps better positioned than any other company in the open source world to answer the seemingly eternal and perplexing question: How do you make money off this stuff? The company has the right mix of money, product, expertise, and management to become a poster child for open source success.
Corel's Linux plans
One of the more amazing things I saw at the show was the crowd at the Corel booth. As you probably are aware, Corel has announced that it is seeking to sell its Linux distribution. It plans to continue offering WordPerfect and CorelDraw as Linux applications, but not the Corel Linux distribution. In spite of that announcement, Corel was giving demonstrations of Corel Linux to almost standing room crowds at its booth. I guess I had expected to find the booth lonely and deserted. Boy, was I wrong.
Derek Burney, the new CEO of Corel, sat down to discuss Corel's Linux hopes and plans for the future, and to explain why the company is selling its distribution. The bottom line is money. Corel figured it would take at least $300 million to offer an "end-to-end" Linux distribution, meaning one that provides all the major uses and applications under a single roof. It would also require all of the company's time and resources. Since Corel couldn't afford the money, and since Linux is not its core competency, it decided to sell off that part of the business.
Corel intends to continue offering applications on Linux, however. The costs of doing so with WINE instead of native code are incremental. The size of the Linux desktop market at present simply does not justify the expense of rewriting the 15 million lines of code in CorelDraw for Linux. I asked Burney if Corel would prefer to keep part-ownership of the distribution. He replied: "Yes. Well, it's not essential, but we would like to because we've poured so much blood, sweat, and tears into what we're doing. The people would probably go with the solution in the first place, but more than that we really believe in the power of Linux and that it [will] be successful, and so we want to kind of ride it, you know? We don't want to just snip the wires and then see it go."
Corel has received more than its share of criticism from the community, primarily, I suppose, because it is a longtime proprietary software firm. But whatever the reasons, Corel has not gotten a fair shake. All of the software it developed from the ground up for its distribution has been given back to the community. All the improvements to WINE in the past couple of years have too. And that is a considerable amount of work. When Corel got involved with WINE it was an incomplete implementation of 16-bit Windows. Now it is 32-bit, thanks primarily to Corel, and capable of running two of the premier applications from the Windows world. Burney believes that Adobe and Macromedia could extend WINE to port their products to Linux with only a couple of weeks' work.
Will Corel keep its products in the Linux market? At this point, probably so. Burney noted that the ongoing costs are not prohibitive, and when the Linux desktop market finally begins to take off, Corel should be well placed to quickly become profitable. Burney expects that the desktop takeoff will not happen until someone like IBM puts together an end-to-end distribution package that can compete effectively in the enterprise market against the likes of Microsoft and Sun.
Lastly, I want to stave off a new misconception caused by the popularity of the show -- one that is at least as bad as the "Red Hat is Linux" meme we've been fighting for years. Gary Krakow's Expo piece that appeared on MSNBC after the show makes a critical -- and invalid -- assumption that LWCE is Linux. Repeat after me: LWCE is not Linux. LWCE is an event staged by a very large company that makes money by (among other things) hosting and promoting trade shows.
That said, LWCE cannot help but reflect the business swarm surrounding Linux, and like Krakow, I too miss the flavor of more authentic community involvement. What do you think? Is it time for a community-based Linux show to rise from the ashes?
Resources
- "At LinuxWorld Microsoft Exec Has Fighting Words," Peter Galli (eWeek, January 30, 2001):
http://www.zdnet.com/eweek/stories/general/0,11011,2680345,00.html - "MS Exec: Linux Is Going Down," Michelle Delio (Wired, January 31, 2001):
http://wired.com/news/business/0,1367,41527,00.html - "Linux Everywhere -- or Mostly for Big Business?" Gary Krakow (MSNBC, February 1, 2001):
http://www.msnbc.com/news/524982.asp - Corel homepage:
http://www.corel.com - GreatBridge homepage:
http://www.greatbridge.com/ - PostgreSQL homepage:
http://www.postgresql.org - WINE homepage:
http://www.winehq.com
Joe Barr is a
contributing editor at LinuxWorld.com and a
recovering programmer. In addition to writing the Version
Control column for LinuxWorld.com, he writes for and
maintains The Dweebspeak Primer. Visit Joe's Version Control discussion in the
Linux Forum, hosted on ITworld.com.
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